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Demand for coal prices will remain volatile in the short term

Release:hnyinxing view:916

  During the period, the port coal price increase slowed down, and the demand did not increase due to the end of the heating period. On the supply side, since Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi have carried out different forms of major safety inspections this year, the release rate of supply was lower than expected. Therefore, in the context of better demand, lower inventory, and blocked supply release, short-term coal prices will remain volatile at high levels.

  The latest issue of the CCI5500 index was reported at 690 yuan/ton on March 24, down 2 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week, up 66 yuan/ton or 10.6% from the beginning of the month; the CCI5000 index was reported at 610 yuan/ton, down from the beginning of the week 5 Yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 51 yuan/ton or 9.1% from the beginning of the month.

  According to a trader in Shandong, the recent coal price in the port is highly volatile, and the market is waiting to see more. The 5500 kcal sulfur 0.8% coal price is 690 yuan/ton. Downstream power plants will purchase 5,000 kcal of sulfur and 0.8% of coal for the next week as the closing price of 605 yuan/ton.

  On March 24, the Taiyuan Railway Bureau issued the “Taiyuan Railway Bureau Notice on Adjusting the Price of Certain Freight Transport”, announcing that the freight rate for coal transportation within the Taiyuan Bureau's vehicle within the unified tariff line was restored to the national benchmark Price rate. The freight rate on the Daqin Line rose by 1 point/ton kilometre. The initial calculation of the cost of Shanxi coal delivered to the port increased by RMB 6-7/ton.

  China Coal Resources Network learned that the recent increase in freight rates in Daqin once again increased the port arrival cost, adding some support to the market coal price. In addition, the current downstream power plant inventory is low, so the short-term price is still not good. At present, the port offers 5,500 kcal coal for 700 yuan, and the downstream sulphur 0.8 for closing price is 685 yuan. 5000 kcal coal closing price of 610 yuan.

  At present, the supply of pits is still tight, and the Shanxi region has started surprise inspections from provincial and municipal levels. It has a greater impact on the start-up of some integrated mines. The operating rates of Shaanxi Shenmu, Yokoyama, and Fugu have increased, but output has not yet recovered. Normal supply phase. The more severe environmental protection and safety inspections in the later period still caused some mines to face greater starting pressure. At this stage, the queuing phenomenon in the pit area is still obvious, and the strong price of pits has certain support for the port.

  Judging from the current status quo, the growth of coal production in the major producing areas under the constraints of safety and environmental protection inspections is still limited in the short term, and it is expected that coal prices will hardly fall before the end of March. After April, with the continuous increase in the rate of operation of the main producing areas and the entry into the maintenance period of the coastal power plants, the demand for coal will fall back, and coal prices may steadily decline.

  Industry analysis pointed out that at present, the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption is obvious. Under the circumstances that infrastructure investment is still relatively obvious this year, this part of demand will still be the main growth point. In addition, the current situation of incoming water in the south is generally inconsistent with the fact that the thermal power load is not reduced. In particular, in the traditional southwest region where water is abundant, electricity is still maintained, and the climate situation is also beneficial to the coal market in the short term.

  On the six major power plants along the coast, as of March 24, the inventory of the six major power plants was 9.339 million tons, which was the lowest level in the past six years. The daily coal consumption amounted to 674,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 20%.

  In terms of coking coal, based on the favorable demand side, clean coal stocks in main producing coal mines such as Shanxi, Hebei, and Shandong all declined significantly from the previous period. In April, the price of clean coal increased.

  In terms of coke, as of now, the second round of coke rise is basically completed, and after the increase, the price of the first-level plants from major steel mills in Hebei is 1,880 yuan/ton, and this month has gone up by 100 yuan/ton. The coke prices in individual coking plants have gone up by 150 yuan/ton. . With the end of the two sessions, downstream steel mills have considerable profits, and the enthusiasm for resumption of production is very high. Demand for coke is also increasing. In addition, the inventory of coke in steel enterprises is still declining, and the general stocks are at the mid-to-low level. There is still room for upward movement in coke in the later period.

  However, with the gradual completion of the coke plant's resumption of work and the continuous replenishment of steel coke stocks, coupled with the high cost of coking coal raw materials, there is limited room for increase in coke profits. In addition, post-environmental protection and security inspections will be the key factors affecting the trend of coking coal, and strict enforcement will affect the supply of coking coal.

  The latest issue of the CCI metallurgical coal index on March 24th showed that CCI Liulin low-sulfur coal was reported at 1,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, down 70 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; CCI Lingshifei coal was reported at 1,040 yuan/ton, and Compared with the same period last week, there was no change, compared to 20 yuan per ton of coal at the beginning of the month.


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